NATCHITOCHES, La., April 13, 2012 — Rick Santorum’s decision to suspend his campaign was met by an outpouring of good will and kind words from his opponents. Mitt Romney was conciliatory. Ron Paul’s online supporters, who last week hardly considered Santorum a true American, are now enthusiastic in their praise of him as the other principled candidate whose supporters should now support Paul.
Only Newt Gingrich seemed sour, thoughts of what might have been had Santorum dropped out when he told him to adding to his sense of aggrievement.
After firing a third of his staff a couple of weeks ago, Gingrich hopes that Santorum’s departure will resuscitate his campaign. He’s now the “only true conservative” left in the race, as he sees it, and his supporters (aside from Callista, who’s the other?) want him to stay in it. At last he has his chance to face Romney one-on-one.
But of course he does not. Ron Paul is still in the race, and the Gingrich campaign is dead. Before Santorum dropped out, Gingrich declared that he and Romney could heal the rift between them and that he could “enthusiastically” support Romney. That is despite the fact that he thinks Romney is a dishonest, “Etch A Sketch,” not-really-conservative candidate.
Ron Paul’s supporters are convinced that their man will reap the benefits of going one-on-one against Romney, along with much of Santorum’s support and some delegates. Like most of the media, they have started acting as if Gingrich doesn’t exist, and for practical purposes he does not. But Santorum, who was on icy terms with Paul while he was in the campaign, is probably contemplating a 2016 run, and endorsing Paul would kill that in the crib.
Because he is only suspending his campaign, Santorum’s delegates remain pledged to him. Delegates have minds of their own and can’t be bought and bargained for like beads at a bazaar. However, Santorum will have some influence with them, so his endorsement matters. He can’t endorse Paul, and Gingrich, deep in a financial hole and desperate for money, can do nothing for him. Only Romney can help him retire his debt and put him on good footing to face 2016. If he plays this intelligently (or cynically, if you prefer), he can only endorse Romney. He will do it once Romney gives him what he needs - a promise of financial assistance, and probably a prime speaking slot at the convention.
If he waits too long, Romney won’t need him for the nomination, though Santorum’s support will still be important for November. Romney already has more than half the delegates he needs for the nomination, and unless Paul does something astonishing, he’ll get them.
Paul gains nothing from Santorum’s departure; he only loses. The Paul strategy was to work the state conventions, acquire more delegates than his official count (his supporters claim he has over 200, not the 51 he’s won in the primaries and caucuses), make sure that delegates pledged to other candidates are his supporters, deny Romney the delegates to win in the first vote at the convention, then, after the pledged delegates vote for whom they must in the first round, win in the next round of voting.
With Santorum’s departure, that won’t happen. Some of Romney’s delegates may be Paul supporters, but if they have to vote for Romney in the first round, they’ll never get a chance to vote for Paul in a second round. Without Santorum to bleed away delegates, Paul can’t force a second vote at the convention.
Santorum’s departure destroys Paul’s convention strategy, and it can’t bring the dead Gingrich campaign back to life. It’s a pure win for Romney. But what about for Santorum?
Santorum is the second winner this week. He had no chance of winning the nomination, and only a slightly better chance of blocking Romney. If he’d waited much longer to leave, he’d have earned Party enmity for prolonging the campaign beyond reason. If he’d lost in Pennsylvania for a second time, his credibility as a candidate would have been demolished.
Santorum pointedly did not praise Romney when he announced his departure from the race. He didn’t mention Romney at all. That could be viewed as petty disrespect, but it also telegraphed his intentions: Romney has to buy his support. If Romney expects to have a chance in November, he’ll need it.
James Picht is the Senior Editor for Communities Politics and teaches economics at the Louisiana Scholars’ College in Natchitoches, La., where he went to take a break from working in Moscow and Washington. But he fell in love with the town and with the professor of Romance languages, so there he stayed. Now he teaches, annoys his children, and makes jalapeno lemonade. His mother told him to write more. He tweets, hangs out on Facebook, and has a blog he totally neglects at pichtblog.blogspot.com.
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