NATCHITOCHES, La., November 29, 2011 — Embattled presidential candidate Herman Cain defied expectations that he'd quit the race today. He delivered a planned speech on foreign policy at Hillsdale College this evening, and afterwards Cain spokesman J.D. Gordon said that Cain is "in it to win it."
Cain won't win it. Despite his protestations to the contrary, he won't long stay in it.
Cain never really had a chance. His surprising surge in September was the result of non-Romney du jour syndrome. It came as the candidacy of Rick Perry, the previous month's non-Romney, imploded.
Much was made of Perry's poor debate performance, but Cain also exhibited exceedingly modest debating skills in the last month. His lack of preparation became painfully obvious: His chief economist was an accountant; his 9-9-9 plan was panned by economists and the citizens of New Hampshire; he was unaware that China has had nuclear weapons for over 40 years; and he suggested that he'd just hire people to remember names of countries and leaders for him and let the generals tell him what to do about Afghanistan.
And then, like Bill Clinton, he experienced "bimbo eruptions."
That term was the Clinton campaign's unkind (we could say misogynist) way to marginalize women who claimed more intimate familiarity with Governor Clinton than was seemly. Perhaps because he was a Democrat, perhaps because the women were southern and had "big hair," the press ran with "bimbo eruption" and displayed some contempt for the women involved.
Herman Cain isn't a Democrat, and Ginger White doesn't have big hair. It also appears that Republican voters take infidelity more seriously than do Democrats. After initially rallying around Cain, they're looking at him much more critically, and they're less and less enthusiastic about what they see. Cain's "positive intensity" scores (the percent of GOP voters with strongly positive views of Cain minus the percent with strongly negative views) have fallen from 34 in mid-October to only 9 today.
Cain's conservative supporters, including Fox's Sean Hannity, are stepping away from him. This argues that it's time for Herman Cain to go. He's a distraction, and he has no chance of winning.
And yet ... after a disastrous start to his campaign, Newt Gingrich saw his positive intensity score fall from 19 to 1. His candidacy was written off as hopeless. He's now the co-front runner with Mitt Romney, and his positive intensity score (20) is double Romney's (9).
If he goes, Cain's departure will help Gingrich. Cain's voters are conservative, and as demonstrated by the animosity that Ron Paul's supporters show to Cain (a former governor of the detested Federal Reserve), Cain's supporters have no natural philosophical inclinations towards Paul. Some will go to Santorum and Bachmann, a few to Romney, but most will go to Gingrich.
Gingrich's positive intensity is only 20, and even the dispassionate Romney has managed a score that high. The GOP race is still wide open. If Gingrich could come back from disaster, why couldn't Bachmann, Perry, or Cain? What happens if the Gingrich campaign implodes, yet again?
It's not really surprising that Cain hasn't dropped out. It takes a healthy ego to run for the presidency in the first place, and a strong ability to disregard reality, especially in the early stages of a campaign, when the odds are hugely against you. Realistic, normal human beings never run.
Cain's inclination is to stay. Gingrich can be hurt by his own past, conservatives still don't like Romney, and Cain's ego is at least as healthy as his libido. But he will eventually decide that it's hopeless and go, probably after announcing that the campaign is putting too much stress on his family and that he doesn't want to put them through the political meat grinder any longer. Gingrich would like that to happen sooner, Romney, later.
Cain should go now, and so should Santorum, Bachmann, and Huntsman. They have only five weeks left until primary voting begins, not enough time to breathe life back into their campaigns. But like Cain, they all know that no one has won the solid support of GOP voters yet, and they all have healthy egos. And that is why we'll be stuck with a large group of candidates until GOP voters start voting some of them off the island.
Some of the Communities Coverage of Herman Cain:
Herman Cain and Morgan Freeman: Whose comments better fight racism?
Talking Sticks: Herman Cain's popularity and financial support
We have a right to know all about Herman Cain
Herman Cain comes to Alabama
Credibility gap on both sides of Herman Cain, Sharon Bialek sag
Herman Cain: God made me do it (Video)
Herman Cain allegations and alligators
Herman Cain: Running for president is such a drag (Video)
Herman Cain wins Florida straw poll: The "Who is this guy" to beat
Herman Cain on Letterman: Cain simply can't cut it (Video)
Herman Cain, Barack Obama, Morris Day and The Time
Herman Cain versus the established idealogue
Trick or Treat? A Mitt Romney/Herman Cain ticket?
Herman Cain versus the established idealogue
The savage lynching of Herman Cain
The high tech lynching of Herman Cain
Herman Cain tries hard not to be a politician
Herman Cain leads Florida Straw Poll followed by Perry, Romney
Herman Cain: A true Conservative or corporate puppet? (Video)
Herman Cain looks like the real deal, but for how long
James Picht is the Senior Editor for Communities Politics and teaches economics at the Louisiana Scholars' College in Natchitoches, La., where he went to take a break from working in Moscow and Washington. But he fell in love with the town and with the French professor, so there he stayed. Now he teaches, annoys his children, and makes jalapeno lemonade. He prefers Godfather's pizza to Domino's. He tweets, hangs out on Facebook, and has a blog he totally neglects at pichtblog.blogspot.com.
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