NEW YORK, March 20, 2013 ― Senator Rand Paul is the kind of presidential candidate many in the millennial generation have been dreaming of. He gets it on so many issues: medical marijuana, foreign policy, Internet freedom, civil liberties, guns, abortion, and taxes.
Paul delivers his liberty-oriented message with a finesse his father never had. His 13-hour filibuster showed that despite being more mainstream than his father, he still has the unwavering principles that drew millions of supporters to the Ron Paul campaign. However, his announcement yesterday in support of amnesty for illegal aliens will end all the dreams many of his ardent supporters had of a future President Paul.
There is a great irony that for all of Congressman Ron Paul’s unmovable positions that were rooted in libertarian philosophy, the one issue where he broke away from the ideology was immigration. Throughout his career in Congress, Ron stood firmly opposed to amnesty and birthright citizenship. On an episode of The Fox Business Show Stossel, he stated:
“So I’m not anxious for them to get to vote, because that is very controversial because there’s a lot of antagonism over the idea: “get the illegals in and they’ll all vote for the Democrats”. Believe me, that exists. It exists in California, and it exists in Texas. So that is a reason I am not anxious to reward them with citizenship. “
He, like many other libertarian leaning Republicans before him, understood that many new immigrants flocked to the Democrat party over issues of welfare, affirmative action, and government intervention in the market place. Since the elder Paul made that statement there has been no positive change. Households headed by immigrants both legal and illegal are more likely to be on a welfare program than households headed by native-born Americans.
Rand hasn’t seemed to grasp Ron’s words though. For some reasons many young libertarians, like communists just don’t understand math and democracy. We should ask, if Rand had run for the Senate in a state with the demographics of California rather than Kentucky, would he be in the Senate today? The Golden State that gave the country Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan will never vote for a Republican president in our lifetimes.
A majority of illegal aliens who would be granted citizenship by amnesty are from Latin America and Asia, two demographic groups that Romney lost miserably. It’s understandable that some Republicans think throwing a political bone to these voting groups would make them more inclined to look at the GOP in 2016.
This theory ignores history. Despite Ronald Reagan granting amnesty in 1986 and George H.W. Bush expanding legal immigration and creating diversity visas, the romance between Latino’s and Republicans never emerged. Reagan won 34 percent of the Hispanic vote in 1984 even while he won a 49 state landslide. George H.W. Bush received 30 percent in 1988 and 25 percent in 1992. Bob Dole received only 21 percent in 1996. George W. Bush who ran on a campaign of national defense and compassionate conservatism- issues Rand Paul is not likely to run on in 2016, received 35 percent in 2000 and 34 percent in 2004. Despite being a strong supporter of amnesty, John McCain received only 31 percent of the Hispanic vote, just 4 percent higher than Mitt Romney.
For the last thirty-years, Hispanics have been the most loyal Democrat constituency group outside African Americans and Jewish Americans. Could Rand Paul, the Republican Party’s new maverick, change this pattern in 2016? Not likely, according to the Pew Research Hispanic Center. They conducted a study that shows Hispanics are more liberal than the average American and believe in bigger government that provides more services. It is unlikely hat they will find much in common with a Senator who wants to abolish the Departments of Education and Housing and Urban Development.
Something that neither Senator Rand Paul nor the “Gang of 8” have mentioned is the cost of granting citizenship to 11 million new people. According to Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation that number is $2.5 trillion. So much for conservatives chanting about the evils of debt and deficit spending.
Rand Paul would be a fantastic President, but because of his own wishful thinking that he can create a winning coalition by supporting amnesty, he most definitely never will have the chance. Neither will Marco Rubio, nor Chris Christie, nor any other Republican. Because once 11 million illegal aliens are granted citizenship, they will be overwhelmingly voting Democrat, and Rand Paul can kiss Texas, Arizona, and the White House goodbye. For the sake of conservatives and libertarians who want to see a president reduce the size of government, we need to save President Paul from Senator Paul.
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