10 Things to Watch on Election Day

10 things the no one will be watching on election day but everyone should.

WASHINGTON, November 5, 2012 – Listen to the talking heads on Cable News and they are seeking the one thing that will help determine the winner in tomorrow’s election.

Here are ten suggestions of issues they may be missing:

10) The Asian Vote: not many have been paying attention to this voting bloc, however the Asian vote has several important trends that will be very important for the future.  For starters, Asians surpassed Hispanics as the fastest growing minority group in the country in 2012.  Asians have the highest IQ’s, highest earned income households, and account along with Europeans immigrants as the super-majority of immigrant owned business especially in areas of technology.  Despite all of these features that would make up a stereotypical Republican voting bloc, Asians have increased their numbers towards Democrats in every single election since 1992 save 2004.  

The Republican share of the Asian vote has decreased by more than half, from 55% in 1992 to a dismal 23% in 2008.  If the Republicans have any dream of reclaiming a presence especially in dark blue states like Hawaii and California, they are going to have to stop the hemorrhaging of the Asian vote.

09) Puerto Rico Statehood: An extremely important decision that very few have been talking about during the election cycle.  For the fourth time since 1967, Puerto Rico will go to the polls to vote on whether or not they want to change their political status with these United States. 

The march for statehood has continued for sometime, the current Republican Governor Luis Fortuno is strong supporter of the measure.  The measure has never passed before, however the vote has never been conducted during a Presidential election before. 

In the long term, if Puerto Rico were to become a state it would most certainly become like Hawaii, a guaranteed stronghold of the Democratic Party.  Nevertheless, even if the referendum passes, statehood would still need to pass the congress of the United States. 

So don’t sew an extra star on the flag just yet.

08) Gay Marriage in Maryland: Maryland along with Maine, Minnesota, and Washington are having votes to legalize homosexual marriage. The vote in Maryland is much different and more significant than the other three being it is has a much larger black population than the others or the nation as a whole. 

Blacks have always been and still are one of the most church segments of American society. According to the Faith Matters Survey of 2006, Black Protestants were the second most religiously observant group in America, only outpace by Mormons.   

Blacks voters supported the ban gay marriage in California in 2008 by a 40% margin.  However the endorsement of gay marriage by President Obama may have shifted feelings on the matter by black voters, in the most recent poll 50% of black voters opposed gay marriage, 42% supported. 

To note, gay marriage usually polls higher than it performs on election, either way this one will be interesting to watch.

07) The Gary Johnson Factor: Since Ron Paul was flatly rejected by the Republican Party in the 2012 primary and disrespected at the convention.  Many of his supporters have staged an opposition vote against what they see as the case for a lesser of two evils. 

While the Libertarian Party has never garnered more than 1% of the national vote, if Johnson can be the difference in a swing state and hand the election to Obama, it may cause an even greater rejection of libertarians in the Republican Party or may make the Republican Party realize that they need to support libertarians in their “big tent”.  

If Gary Johnson becomes this years Ralph Nader the Republican Party is going to have create a solution for their Libertarian problem.

06) Washington State Gubernatorial Election: This is an interesting example of Republicans gaining power in typically blue states.  Despite the mainstream media’s hype about the Republican Party being in its Indian summer, Republicans control 29 of the governorships with the possibility of gaining four more in this election cycle. 

If Republican Rob McKenna manages to win, he will join five other Republican Executives of states that have tilted Democrat in the last five Presidential elections: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maine. 

Rhode Island’s current governor is a Republican turned Independent.

05) Joe Arpaio’s Re-election: Sheriff Arpiao is the face of border enforcement and restrictionist immigration policy. Sheriff Arpaio is known as “America’s toughest Mayor” for his efforts to control illegal immigration in Arizona.  The illegal immigration lobby has made him their prime target and Adios Arpaio has registered 34,327 Hispanic voters in Maricopa County. 

While the Hispanic population is large and growing, it probably won’t be enough to oust the Sheriff, who has spent over $7 million on his election and has won every previous election by a double-digit margin.  If the illegal alien lobby wasn’t able to oust Governor Jan Brewer they probably do not have the strength to oust Arpaio. 

If Arpaio loses it will be extremely discouraging for restrictionists.

04) New England GOP: Once upon a time in America the strongest Republican state was Vermont, which elected a Republican Governor from 1854 to 1963.  New England was the stronghold against Franklin Roosevelt; Maine and Vermont rejected him all four times he ran. 

Times have changed and New England currently only has one Republican governor, two Republican congressmen, and four Republican senators. Yet if there was ever a year for Republicans to hold out Democratic domination, this would be the year. 

Though the loss of Olympia Snowe is devastating, Republicans have strong candidates with Linda McMahon and Scott Brown.  They also have an opportunity to win in six house seats in New England.  Republicans cannot afford to lose nearly every election in the New England states. 

With a former New England moderate governor on the top of the ticket, it might show Republicans if this is as good as it can get for Republicans in New England.

03) John Barrow in Georgia: Even more rare than a New England Republican is a White Southern Democrat.  In the Deep South, John Barrow is the last of his kind. 

Whites in the Deep South rejected Obama and have been trending against the national Democratic Party for over a decade; Obama garnered less than 20% of the White Southern vote.  In the old Confederacy where the Democratic Party controlled for over a century, only fifteen white Democrats still remain in the halls of the House, three of which are retiring and three more are polling behind. 

02) Nate Silver Accuracy: The New York Times number wizard is possibly the Right’s biggest target after President Obama. Everyone from Karl Rove to Joe Scarborough has criticized Silver for his prediction that the president would win re-election in a blowout.  

Forty-eight hours before election day Silver has Romney losing virtually every swing state save Florida and North Carolina. If Silver is wrong it could harm the soft science of presidential polling, were he reigns as king.

01) Youth Turnout: The Democratic Party has worked tirelessly, getting young celebrities and get out the vote efforts in both the 2008 and 2012 elections.  Despite best efforts youth enthusiasm is down by 20 percent according to Gallup in this election and even with Obama on the top of ticket, youth turnout was only marginally higher than it had been in previous years. 

It will be interesting to see if the youthful Paul Ryan will increase the number of young people who will vote for the Republicans.

 


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Ryan James Girdusky

Ryan James Girdusky has had his work published in Human Events, DailyCaller.com, American Spectator, Townhall.com, The Christian Science Monitor and Americanthinker.com.  He is a political consultant based out of his native New York City. He has been featured on The Dr. Gina Radio Show, The Mark Skoda Show and The Edward Woodson Radio Show.

 

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