BEIJING, January 15 2013 ― In-between now and February 24th there lies a vast chasm of anticipation permeating throughout Hollywood. But worry not fervent reader and move fan as I intend to fill that gap with my highly scientific 85th academy awards predictions.
This year’s Oscar nominees for Best Actress are diverse. Different races, ages and nationalities provide perhaps the most unpredictable contest to date.
Best Actress nominations include more than one top contender and more than one possible candidate for an upset. It even features the youngest and oldest nominees for Best Actress in Oscar history: Quvenzhane Wallis, 9 for Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour’s Emmanuelle Riva who will turn 86 on the very day of the Oscar awards.
What a birthday gift that would be.
With such a strong field this year it’s best to start with who more than likely won’t be in serious contention; and there are only two. First is little Quvenzhane Wallis.
Though talented for her age, Wallis possesses only the raw talent, the academia and experience are not there yet. And at 9 she has many more opportunities to win.
Also not likely to win is Naomi Watts for The Impossible. Even with the film being based on a true story and the emotional roller coaster her character endured, Watts’ film isn’t nominated for best picture and though that shouldn’t matter, in Oscar Theory 101, it does.
Thus we move on to the battle of the J’s: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty or Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. Both women are garnering a lot of heat, gave powerful performances in their respective films and both were awarded Golden Globes this year for Best Actress. So are they evenly matched? No.
The edge goes to Chastain. Why? Zero Dark Thirty is a drama. Again, in Oscar Theory 101 dramas beat comedies, even if one tries to place the comedy into a chic category like dramedy.
Thus the Oscar goes to Jessica Chastain? Not yet.
Emmanuelle Riva’s performance in Amour was riveting, on par with, if not exceeding Chastain’s. Moreover Riva’s foreign allure, over fifty year dedication to cinema and age will influence the academy, the older a nominee the more likely a he or she is to win; this is covered in Oscar Theory 102. Therefore if anyone pulls off an upset it is likely to be Emmanuelle Riva.
Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva: Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts: The Impossible
Winner: Jessica Chastain
Upset: Emmanuelle Riva or Jennifer Lawrence
This article is the copyrighted property of the writer and Communities @ WashingtonTimes.com. Written permission must be obtained before reprint in online or print media. REPRINTING TWTC CONTENT WITHOUT PERMISSION AND/OR PAYMENT IS THEFT AND PUNISHABLE BY LAW.