Oscar Best Picture Predictions: Will Argo edge out Lincoln?

Oscars: What a difference a month makes; the new Best Picture frontrunner. Photo: 8th Annual Academy Awards

BEIJING, February, 23, 2013 - On Sunday, February 24th this year’s nominees for best picture will vie for the Holy Grail of the Oscars - Best Picture.

The prize not only offers the distinguished honor of being the best among the best and a place in Oscar history, it also creates financial laurels for the studio, actors, director, producers, composers, costume creators — all those folks that climb onto the stage — as well.

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Posting the words Best Picture on the face of a DVD can more than double post Ceremony sales; For lesser known films and creators, like this year’s Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild, it will have drastically elevate career trajectories.

For films still in cinemas, an Oscar win normally offers a slight bump in box office receipts.

So which will be putting the Golden man on their mantle?

When the nominations were announced a month ago, it seemed Lincoln with best director and actor nominations; the most nominations, a whopping 12 overall, for any one film, would be a shoe in.

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It also seemed obvious that the only real competition Lincoln faced would from be from Life of Pi or maybe Silver Linings Playbook but that has all taken a drastic turn in Boston native, Ben Affleck’s favor.

First there was the Golden Globe upset, then SAGs, DGAs, BAFTA, among many others, which have catapulted Affleck’s Argo from underdog to alpha dog at this year’s contest.

Another strong contender, Zero Dark Thirty which many believe is the best picture, has been taking criticism from all sides. The CIA calls it inaccurate; the academy decries its glorification of torture, added to Katherine Bigalow’s win just three years previous for another modern warfare film, The Hurt Locker, and you have a recipe that subdues Zero Dark Thirty’s prowess of filmmaking and its odds of winning dwindle to a truly zero in thirty.

The other four nominees, Django Unchained, Les Miserable, Amour and Beast of the Southern Wild as entertaining and profound as they may be are non-contenders and garnered their nominations mostly for the academy’s plead for ratings.

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Ten nominees, though nine this year, in the academy’s mind spells higher ratings. The limitation on the nominees was raised from five to now ten to compete with video games and the web for audiences’ attention. The internet era with its instant updates and 5 minute clips have put a pinch on viewers’ attention span so five more films, four this year, have been allowed to accept the nomination.

Fortunately for Argo, one of the films that may not have been nominated otherwise, the weeks leading up to the big night have given it much need momentum, though history is not on its side. Only 3 films in Oscar history have won the best picture award without a best director nomination, most recently Driving Miss Daisy which was nearly 25 years ago.

Don’t count on Lincoln to go out without a fight, history is always on his side.

It all begins this Sunday, February, 24th at the 85th annual Academy Awards.

Join us as we live stream the Oscars Red Carpet with People Magazine, here at Communities, tomorrow night starting at 6:00pm EST.


Read more Oscar predictions in Dwain Worrell is Looking West: From China to Hollywood, news and reviews

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Dwain Worrell

A Georgia State University graduate, Dwain Worrell majored in theater with concentration in play and screenwriting. Dwain is a news  article translator in Beijing and a screenwriter.

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