HAWAII, November 5, 2012 – Tuesday night is a difficult one to call. The deciding factor may ultimately be how many absentee and early walk-in votes Mitt Romney siphoned during his brief post-debate bump.
Nevertheless, Republicans are banking that poor economic conditions will result in aggregate electoral retribution against incumbent Democrats on Tuesday but I believe the reverse is true: President Obama as well as Democratic congressional candidates will benefit at the polls as a result of the bad economy.
From a standpoint of comparative international politics, nations which experienced periods of hyperinflation and economic decline have voted for left-leaning reforms over fiscal austerity platforms in their periods of distress and I do not believe the United States will be an exception.
Gallup’s recent Presidential Job Approval report shows Barack Obama at 52% approve as of November 5th, which suggests to me that Americans are not sufficiently motivated to punish Obama at the polls.
As of Friday last week, Obama led in 19 of 22 polls conducted in battleground states. While there is certainly a moderate possibility that Romney may win Tuesday night, my best guess is a victory for President Obama, 308 to 230 for Governor Romney.
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