WASHINGTON, February 10, 2012—It might be overstating it to say that three presidential campaigns hang in the balance. But all three candidates—Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum—have a lot riding on their performance at CPAC today.
(Congressman Ron Paul's campaign isn't in flux, nor is he speaking at CPAC.)
For Speaker Gingrich, his performance could reignite some of the enthusiasm around his candidacy that seems to have dissipated. As Jim Geraghty of National Review says, "Newt Gingrich has been giving dynamite speeches at CPAC since he was Speaker. It's what he does."
If Newt does in fact light up the crowd, he could give a much-needed boost to his campaign and steal some of Santorum's thunder. But if he doesn't perform well, or seems bitter, or even worse, "grandiose," then he could very well write the death warrant for his bid. He is unlikely to do that, but Gingrich nevertheless can't mail it in. He has the most to lose.
For Senator Santorum's part, he needs to deliver in order to capitalize on his tremendous momentum coming out of Tuesday's trifecta. This is Santorum's type of crowd, and he could easily connect in the same way he has always done. If he meets or exceeds expectations, he might be able to keep pace with Romney until the next round of primaries—in Arizona and Michigan—making the race close.
If he does so, many argue that he could effectively knock out Gingrich. The short-term battle seems to be between those two. When they are both strong, they split the non-Romney vote and Romney wins more easily. When it is a two-man contest, Romney is much more vulnerable.
Santorum has an opportunity to make it a two-man race in the minds of many Republicans. But if he doesn't, his campaign goes on as if it were Thursday. The stakes are not as high for Santorum as they are for his intermediate rival. But they are higher for him than they are for the frontrunner.
That frontrunner hasn't been able to close the sale with the base of the party. Nobody is expecting him to do so in one fell swoop at CPAC, either. But in that sense, he has the most to gain today, since a representative sample of the base will be planted in the ballroom—some 3000 strong. If the governor connects in a real way, similar to his performance in 2008 when he suspended his campaign and endorsed John McCain, then he might be able to finally assume a cloak of inevitability.
The model for all three could be any among Sen. Marco Rubio, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, or Sen. Jim DeMint. All three gave powerful speeches yesterday that spoke to tried and true conservative ideals with a level of specificity that kept people listening. All three were funny and entertaining. And all three included personal stories of commitment to the conservative cause. And all three went after Obama and the Democrats. Hard.
The spotlight on the candidates will be bright today. How they perform under those lights will illuminate the way forward in this topsy-turvy race.
Learn more about the author at Rich-Stowell.com
Rich is a teacher and a soldier. In addition to writing the "Rich Like Me" political column at the Washington Times Communities, he is the author of Nine Weeks: A Teacher’s Education in Army Basic Training; Tunnel Club; and Not Another Boring Textbook: A High School Students’ Guide to their Inner Conservative, which you can follow on Facebook.
This article is the copyrighted property of the writer and Communities @ WashingtonTimes.com. Written permission must be obtained before reprint in online or print media. REPRINTING TWTC CONTENT WITHOUT PERMISSION AND/OR PAYMENT IS THEFT AND PUNISHABLE BY LAW.
