PHOENIX, October 8, 2012 ― Last week, President Obama held a two point advantage over Mitt Romney in Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking survey, just hours before the first presidential debate of the 2012 campaign season.
However, following Romney’s strong debate performance, the Republican nominee has now tied Obama nationally and taken the lead in some key swing-states.
In the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll, Romney ties Obama, both candidates garnering 48 percent, just five days following the first debate.
Four years ago today, Obama held a six-point advantage over then Republican-nominee, John McCain, in the same Rasmussen tracking poll.
The Pew Research Center poll released Monday found that Romney leads Obama by four percent among likely voters, with the former Massachusetts governor getting 49 percent to Obama’s 46 percent.
Additionally, a new Politico/George Washington University Battleground tracking poll found that that Romney was leading among Independents by 16 percent. In 2008, Obama won the Independent vote, 52-44; this new poll shows Romney winning the vote, 51 percent to 35 percent.
The Talking Points Memo average of all national surveys shows that Romney leads Obama, 50.5 percent to 40.6 percent, among Independents.
In the swing-state of Colorado, Romney leads Obama, 49 percent to 46 percent according to a Gravis Marketing survey. Before the debate, Gravis Marketing found that Obama was leading Romney by four points.
In Florida, Romney has also taken the lead over Obama, garnering 49 percent to Obama’s 47 percent, according to Rasmussen. Additionally, WeAskAmerica polling found Romney leading Obama by three points following last week’s debate. Rasmussen had Obama up by two points in Florida, in the days preceding the debate.
In Virginia, a state that Obama won by six points in 2008, polls show Romney leading 49 percent to 48 percent. Prior to the debate, Obama held almost a four-point advantage over his Republican challenger.
The crucial state of Ohio is still giving Obama the lead, but by only one percent in the Rasmussen survey days after the debate. WeAskAmerica contradicts Rasmussen and finds that Romney actually leads by one percent. Either result is possible as the small lead is within the polls’ margins of error.
Romney’s strong debate performance is proving to be significant in many key swing-states, and has enhanced his ability to increase his campaign war chest.
In the 48 hours following the debate, Romney’s campaign reported that it raised over $12 million in online donations. Sixty percent of those donations were first time donors, Romney’s campaign announced.
Despite Romney’s bounce in the polls, he could easily lose that lead if his next debate performance isn’t as strong as the first.
This week we’ll see Paul Ryan debate Joe Biden, in the only vice presidential debate. If Ryan can eradicate Biden in the debate as Romney did to Obama last week, the Romney surge could continue.
In the month after the conventions, the press and some polls had almost declared Romney’s campaign dead, the odds of an Obama victory growing ever greater. The debate and these polls emphasize what many had said all along, that this presidential race is going to be a nail-biter on November 6. It was far too soon to award Obama victory laps. The race is by no means over and every vote will count.
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