PHOENIX, October 29, 2012 — In 2004, Ohio was the decisive swing-state that gave President George W. Bush four more years in the White House. As the Obama vs. Romney campaign enters into the final eight days, Ohio is once again ground zero to the presidency.
President Obama currently has states with 201 electoral votes likely or leaning in his column; Mitt Romney has 191 on his side. The leaves 146 toss up votes to put either candidate over the top.
In the race for those remaining 146 electoral votes, Obama and Romney are statistically tied, as the margin of error could award either candidate the electoral votes.
Ohio has 18 electoral votes and has voted with the ultimate winner in the last 10 presidential elections.
The latest Ohio polls show Obama leading Romney by one to four points. However, a poll released Monday showed Mitt Romney leading the president by two points, the first time Romney has lead there since early October. The Real Clear Politics average has Obama winning the state by 1.9%. While Obama and Romney are still within the polling margin of error, meaning the state could go either way, Ohio has often been considered a safer bet for Obama.
With that in mind, the spotlight now turns to Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado. All three states voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008.
Assuming that Mitt Romney wins Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, as the polls indicate he will, the governor will have 248 electoral votes. That’s 22 shy of the White House.
All Romney has to do at that point to get over the 270 mark is to win Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
The latest poll in Colorado shows Romney beating Obama, 48 percent to 47 percent. A Rasmussen poll from last week shows Romney beating Obama, 50 percent to 46 percent.
The latest Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire voters, finds Romney beating Obama by two percent.
Wisconsin is the most likely state of the three to swing into Romney’s column. Wisconsin first came into the spotlight as a swing state when conservative Supreme Court candidate David Prosser defeated liberal and union-backed candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg in the 2011 Supreme Court race. Then in June, Governor Scott Walker won the recall election, garnering an even larger number of votes than he did when he was first elected governor in 2010.
As we look toward the 2012 presidential race, the latest poll from Wisconsin shows the race is tied between Obama and Romney at 49 percent.
If the Republicans in the Badger State have kept the same campaign structure that they’ve had in the past three years, Romney can win Wisconsin, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1984.
If Romney loses Ohio next week, he has to win Wisconsin to win the White House.
Nation wide, Romney leads Obama by five percent in Gallup’s Daily Tracking poll. Any candidate with that kind of lead is favored to win the electoral vote no matter what.
It won’t be an easy task for Romney to accomplish, but it isn’t impossible. We’ll know in just eight short days.
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