PHOENIX, November 3, 2012 ― With just three days left until the long-awaited presidential election, President Obama and Governor Romney are making their final pitch in the key swing-states that will decide who our next president is.
The polls are tightening, the crowds are growing, and the electorate is on the edge of their seats. Right now, no one can confidently say who will win the presidency on the sixth, but there are dozens of scenarios that can give voters an idea of who will win.
Here are two scenarios that show Mitt Romney winning the Electoral College this Tuesday.
Scenario one: The Romney landslide
In scenario one, Mitt Romney could win in a landslide, taking Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Polls currently show that Romney is the favorite to win North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. However, if he can pull of a surprise victory on those remaining states, he will win a total of 315 electoral votes to the president’s 223.
Romney is making big plays in Wisconsin and Ohio, attracting a large crowd of 30,000 in Ohio yesterday. The governor has even added the blue-state of Pennsylvania to his campaign stops in the final days.
Even better, independent voters are breaking for Romney in nearly every poll. Democrats are likely to have a much lower turnout this cycle than they did in 2008, proving to be negative for the president.
If the polls are right and independent voters do break for Romney, he’ll win 315 electoral votes on Tuesday. This scenario isn’t the most likely, but it isn’t impossible. Elections always have surprises.
Scenario Two: the close election
Scenario two is what is most likely to happen on election night. Romney will win the swing-states of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
Since the Denver debate, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina have been trending strong for Romney. Wisconsin is likely due to the strong GOP organization following the failed Democratic recall this summer.
Republicans are currently winning the early vote in Colorado, whereas they lost it by four points in 2008. Democrats have had a strong emphasis on early voter rather Election Day voting. If they’re losing it now in a state that they won by nine percent in 2008, Colorado is likely to go Romney.
Polls in Ohio show the race at a statistical tie, with only a few showing a Romney lead. In spite of the polls, early voting in Ohio is down significantly compared to 2008.
In the Obama stronghold of Cuyahoga County, Ohio, the number of early voters is down nearly 15 percent. This is a county that Obama won by 39 percent in 2008. Early turnout is also low in the Democrat-rich county of Hamilton, also by 15 percent.
This decline in early voting could be attributed to the lack of transportation, or to a decline in actual voter interest.
If scenario two plays out on election night, Romney will win 285 electoral votes to Obama’s 253.
These are just two of many election night scenarios that could play out on Tuesday, and among the most plausible scenarios are some in which Obama wins. Turnout will be crucial. One thing is certain, though: For the first time in a long time, no one can confidently say who our next president will be.
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