WASHINGTON, September 29, 2011 — Even as the AL Wild Card race came down to the season’s final day, so did the quest for second place in the seeding for the Division Series. The Tigers held the tiebreaker, but the Texas Rangers, defending AL champions, held on for home-field advantage. The result is a rematch of last year’s first-round series, wherein the visiting team won each game, giving the Rangers a 3-2 victory. With Cliff Lee gone from Texas and the Rays the result of even more positive turnover, this series looks like a whole different animal.
(2) Texas Rangers; 96-66; first place AL West vs. (W) Tampa Bay Rays; 91-71; second place AL East
No one is ever likely to accuse the Rangers of being a poor-hitting team. With an affinity for sluggers and an extremely hitter-friendly environment, the Rangers have almost always been an offensive juggernaut. This year’s lineup is no different, boasting three 30-homerun hitters: catcher Mike Napoli, second baseman Ian Kinsler, and third baseman Adrian Beltre. Shuffled between catcher, first base, and designated hitter, Napoli, who hit .320/.414/.631 while bouncing between positions, has arguably been the team’s best hitter.
Meanwhile, Kinsler quietly put up the second 30-30 season of his career. The power-hitting outfield trio of David Murphy, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz spent significant portions of the season injured, but still combined to hit 65 homers and drive in 226 runs. Shortstop Elvis Andrus is the only below-average hitter in the starting lineup, but he more than makes up for that with his glove.
The Rays certainly aren’t slackers on offense either. Their lineup this year centers around the steady quartet of star third baseman Evan Longoria, second baseman Ben Zobrist, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Back in April this sentence would have served to talk about the benefits of Manny Ramirez at designated hitter, but that drama played out long ago and left another cheap pickup, Johnny Damon, DH’ing ably.
Despite a deceptively low team on-base percentage, the Rays lineup strikes a solid balance between getting on-base and stealing bases. Upton stole 36 bags to go along with his 23 homeruns; Zobrist stole 19 while going yard 20 times; and Damon also contributed 19 stolen bases. Left fielder Desmond Jennings stole 20 in just 63 games after coming up from Triple-A. The last point of interest is how Joe Maddon will order his lineup to best minimize the damage caused by the black hole catcher Kelly Shoppach has created with his bat.
Comparison for each position/aspect between the two teams.
Despite losing Cliff Lee, the Texas pitching staff maneuvered through the season well, helped in large part by the emergences of Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, and Alexi Ogando to fill the last three rotation spots. Southpaw C.J. Wilson, who pitched much of last season in Lee’s shadow, put up true ace numbers, going 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts.
Colby Lewis also turned in a solid year if you overlook his 4.40 ERA and instead focus on something more meaningful, perhaps his 3.02 K/BB ratio, or his 4.10 FIP. The biggest problem here for Texas is that consistency is fantastic in the regular season, but simply keeping your team in the game is not enough in the playoffs, an issue that’s magnified by the convoluted format of the Division Series. Even Wilson is not a shutdown pitcher, and it won’t do any good if he gives up two or three runs in Game 1and James Shields turns off the motor of Texas’ hitting machine.
The Rays will go as far as their pitching can take them. At the moment, that looks like a great distance indeed. In a world without Justin Verlander, ace James Shields would be a frontrunner for the Cy Young award. What’s scary for the Rangers is that with a little luck in the wins department, the same would apply to Tampa Bay number two starter David Price. Toss in Jeremy Hellickson, a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, and that’s an incredibly potent starting three.
Even if one of those three pitchers were to get hurt, that would only mean an enlarged role for Jeff Niemann, who has arguably pitched better than Hellickson. The huge difference between Tampa’s starting four and Texas’ is that any of the Rays’ starters can carry a game on their own. With the exception of Wilson, that’s a key factor that the Rangers simply cannot match. Numbers generally don’t lie, but here the domination potential of the Rays’ top three is much more important than any stat.
Last year, the Rangers shocked the Rays out of the playoffs in a tough series. The tables have now been turned. Texas is the higher seed and weaker in a key aspect. The Rays are rolling, and this time around, have the pitching tools to get it done against Texas’ sluggers.
Prediction: Rays in 4
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