EASTON, Md., January 6, 2012 — Everyone is talking about former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum inciting an upset or a close second in New Hampshire, but that is not what recent polls show. While the media are focused on Santorum, the Republican voters in New Hampshire are zeroing in on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

Just take a look at the numbers below. They may change over the weekend after the debates, but as of today they tell a different story than the one press is running with. 

Clarus average of the two most recent statewide polls:

Romney: 39%

Paul: 21%

Santorum: 11%

Gingrich: 9%

Huntsman: 8%

Perry: 1%

7 News/Suffolk poll (Jan. 4-5):

Romney: 40%

Pau:l 17%

Santorum: 11%

Gingrich: 9%

Huntsman: 8%

Perry: 1%

Washington Times poll (Jan. 4):

Romney: 38%

Paul: 24%

Santorum: 11%

Gingrich: 9%

Huntsman: 8%

Perry: 1%

Unsure: 10%

Meanwhile, nationally the polls show a bit different slant, although former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney still sits in first place:

Clarus average of two recent national polls:

Romney: 28% (up 3)

Gingrich: 18% (down 7)

Santorum: 16% (up 12)

Paul: 13% (up 2)

Perry: 5% (down 3)

Huntsman: 3%

Next Up: Debates

The debates can still make a difference. The first one is on Saturday night, January 7, at 9 pm EST, on ABC.  The second on is Sunday morning, January 8, at 9 am EST, on NBC. 

Romney has a big target on his back, so expect to see Paul, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Santorum, and Texas Governor Rick Perry make him target practice. Also former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman will be on the hunt as well. But stumbles and fumbles could be rampant amongst the candidates in their enthusiasm to fire off the most salvos.

And watch for the moderators at both debates to ask tough questions of all the GOP candidates, ones that they have been pretty successful in eluding up till now. But these are the questions voters want to know, from their past records and past comments to fact-laden responses to exactly how they would take the country in a different direction.

Then after the debates head to FactCheck.org, Snopes.Com or the Tampa Bay Times’ Politifact.Com to find out who is telling the truth and who isn’t. A great game of gotcha.

Then Come the GOP Primaries

Thanks to the Iowa caucuses, the top tier of GOP candidates have now garnered the grand total of 32 delegates to the GOP convention: Romney, 13; Santorum, 12; Paul, 7.  But many more are at stake.

So if you haven’t marked your calendar, you should. We are in 2012 and your primary is probably just around the corner. You wouldn’t to miss it, especially this year. Here are the next eight primaries:

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

February 7: Colorado, Minnesota & Missouri

February 28: Arizona & Michigan

March 3: Washington

March 6: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming

And there are plenty more in March and April. By then, the Republicans should have settled on their Presidential nominee. 

But then again, don’t count on it.

To contact Catherine Poe, see above. Her work appears in Ad Lib in the Communities at the Washington Times. She can also be heard on the Democrats for America’s Future. She is also a contributor to broadcast, print and online. 

Paul strong in N.H. poll; Romney still dominant

 

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