EASTON, Md., February 9, 2012 — Rick Santorum has plenty to crow about, leaving the other three candidates a lot of crow to eat, even though they are dismissing his victories as mere table scraps.

However, like it or not, moment of truth is here. Time for Mitt Romney, New Gingrich, and Ron Paul to face reality. Last night’s caucuses were about momentum, not necessarily delegates. You either have the mojo or you don’t.  And Mitt lost his mojo.

Santorum showed he had the right stuff, literally, and swept the table, going three for three. But there are two important lessons to be learned from the Santorum wins:

1. The chasm in the Republican rank and file is deeper and sharper than first thought and

2. The lackluster turnout during the GOP primary season doesn’t bode well for a victory come November 2012.

Four years ago Mitt Romney racked up solid wins in Colorado and Minnesota, defeating John McCain, but last night he was humbled by Santorum’s strong showing in Colorado, getting less than 35% to Santorum’s 40.2%. Plus in Minnesota, Romney came in an embarrassing third, not carrying even one county. This time around the conservative base rallied around the man who is probably the only true — and certainly most — conservative candidate in the race from social to economic issues.

And Santorum did it even though the former Massachusetts governor had a solid organization in Colorado with supposedly wide establishment support and a healthy lead in the polls. But it wasn’t the GOP establishment that turned out. Romney’s losses in Minnesota and Missouri could be easily explained away since he put little effort into those states. But not Colorado. And Mitt is now licking his wounds.

Minnesota was ripe pickings for Santorum, a state with a high number of evangelicals and social conservatives, making it friendly territory for Santorum and giving him nearly 45% of the vote. Remember this is Michele Bachmann’s home state. Ron Paul raked in 27.2% of the vote, his best showing of the night with Romney barely eking 17%. 

With Gingrich off the ballot in Missouri and not even bothering with Colorado and Minnesota, choosing instead to stump in Ohio, the self-proclaimed conservative fared poorly (see GOP results below). This allowed Santorum to take Missouri by 55.2%. While Missouri was not awarding delegates, just its blessing (a later caucus will do that), Santorum was favored to win since Newt was not in the race and Romney and Paul by and large ignored the Show-Me state as not worth their time. With money and resources scarce, can Gingrich realistically pursue his 46 state strategy?  

While Congressman Ron Paul has the money to keep rolling along and zealous supporters on the ground, he has not  been able to widen his base. He limped to the finish line in Nevada with a weak third place showing, yet he had been on the ground organizing for the Nevada caucuses for over a year. He skipped the Missouri’s primary beauty contest because no delegates were at stake and he only goes where he can collect delegates. Looking at the statistics, we see that Ron Paul has become an also-ran, not a winner.

He just doesn’t have the broad appeal that he thought his campaign would have and he may not be the player at the convention that he dreamed he would be. As for a Third Party candidacy, these early numbers do not bode well for him even trying to match Ross Perot’s numbers back in the 1992 election. Will Dr. Paul drop out? Doubtful even though he is selling a message that no one is buying.

While Santorum is celebrating today, he doesn’t have the kind of money to go the distance and so the winner will still most likely be Mitt Romney. But Santorum’s solid showing at the polls with the conservative base and his avoidance of attack dog ads, may make him  Romney’s choice for a running mate. It could be the only way for the GOP to close the great divide and perhaps revitalize the GOP’s chances against Obama.

But the primary has now revealed Romney’s weakness: not only are the Republicans not falling in love with him, they are not falling in line. Without the Tea Party and the conservative base to bolster his candidacy, it will be a hard slog against Obama. And unless the enthusiasm for the GOP improves soon, it will not only be Romney who goes down in flames this autumn, but many Republican Congressional candidates with him.

So what’s next? There are two primaries on Tuesday, February 28 in Arizona and Michigan.  The lone debate this month is on February 28 at 8 p.m. on CNN from Mesa, Arizona. Expect Gingrich to let his inner pit bull loose one again, probably on a moderator, but it won’t be enough to garner him more support with the GOP than wild applause from the audience. 

		Gingrich	Paul	Romney	Santorum
02/07	CO	12.8%	11.8%	34.9%	40.2%
02/07	MO	-	12.2%	25.3%	55.2%
02/07	MN	10.7%	27.2%	16.9%	44.8%
02/04	NV	21.1%	18.8%	50.1%	10.0%
01/31	FL	31.9%	7.0%	46.4%	13.3%
Source: Associated Press
	To contact Catherine Poe, see above. Her work appears in HYPERLINK “http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/ad-lib/”Ad Lib in the Communities at the Washington Times. She can also be heard on the HYPERLINK “http://www.americasdemocrats.org/”Democrats for America’s Future. She is also a contributor to broadcast, print and online media.

 

Read more:

Santorum upsets the status quo while Paul supporters upset the caucus

Santorum sweeps, Gingrich fades to irrelevance

Rick Santorum and America’s sacred honor

 

 

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