MONTGOMERY VILLAGE, Md., November 22, 2011 — For some time pollsters have been telling us that the approval rating for President Obama is between 45 and 46%. Historically, presidents who have had a rating this low one year before the general election lose. Presidents Carter and Ford come to mind as examples. The economy doesn’t appear to be moving in an upward direction with any consistency, and unemployment has been stuck at a high rate for some time. These two factors may be decisive on who wins the election.
Is everything stacked against the reelection of the president?
In answering this question, let's apply a layman’s simple analysis based on what we think we know about politics and human nature.
In 2010, the Tea Party galvanized the discontent of the American public and influenced the election of candidates who were conservative, anti-big government, pro-business, anti-deficit, and strict constructionist of the Constitution. The Tea Party had been created in opposition of the government’s bailout of Wall Street, but was soon hijacked by the extreme right wing of the Republican Party to oppose ALL actions by the government, especially the Obama government. At the end of the 2010 election cycle, the Republicans had taken control of the House and denied complete control of the Senate to the Democrats. The Tea Party took credit for these gains by the conservatives.
The future then looked bleak for the reelection of President Obama. Fortunately for him, by the middle of 2011 the extreme actions of some of the elected Tea Party Congressinal persons and others had diminished the interest of many Americans for the Tea Party. It is possible that the influence of the Tea Party in the Presidential elections may be reduced even further and possibly even countered effectively by the new Take Wall Street movement.
The current numbers of the three main political groups in the US are as follows:
- there are approximately 55 million registered Republicans;
- registered Democrats number about 72 million;
- Independent voters can be as high as 44 million*;
- and there are over 50 million people eligible to vote, but who are not included in any of these groups.
*It is difficult to count independent voters with any accuracy as some states don’t include them in the vote as they allow everybody to participate in primaries and others only allow Democrats and Republicans to vote in primaries.
Is it thumbs up for Obama?
Surveys and polls taken during and after the election indicate that approximately 14% of the voters in the 2008 election declared themselves to be Evangelical or Born Again Christians. Seventy percent of these also indicated that they had voted Republican. This subset of voters may have registered with one of the two main parties or as Independents. While they definitely will make a difference for the candidate for the Republican Party in the presidential election, it is difficult to quantify their effect on the election results.
Hispanic or Latinos are about 9% of the electorate. In the last election they voted 2 to 1 for the Obama–Biden ticket. Again it’s difficult to assess quantitatively their effect on the vote in the next election. Some reports indicate that there may be apathy or change in the affiliation of some people in this group.
There is also evidence of dismay in some of the Latino groups for the expanded enforcement of immigration laws since 2009 and the large number of deportations since then. However, the majority of the Latino vote will probably remain with the Democrats. A head to head comparison between the Christian right and the Latino electoral appears to give a clear but small advantage to the former.
Another factor that may affect the upcoming election is the disapproval rate of Congress. To some it is apparent that this disapproval rate is more due to the sabotaging actions of the Republicans and their extreme right-wing goals than to any other factor. Included in these goals are opposition to any tax increase on the super rich, or about 300,000 millionaires and billionaires. Some have said that this track record may result in many Independents voting for President Obama.
This analysis tells me that while the Tea Party, the Occupy Wall Street Movement, the Christian Right, the Latino electoral, and the disapproval of Congress may all play a significant role in the next elections. However, none these factors will be decisive in the election, since they all appear to be pulling in different directions.
This is where the clean, simple analysis stops. In the U.S., a candidate can win the popular vote and still lose the election. This is because candidates are elected on the votes of the Electoral College. Forty eight states award their electoral votes depending on which candidate wins the majority of votes in a winner gets all mode. Three times in our history the victor in general elections has not won the popular vote. Another factor that could influence the Presidential election is the possibility of a third party candidate. To date there is no evidence that this will happen.
So we go back to registered Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a significant advantage, and unless there is a very high Independent vote for the Republicans, President Obama should receive the largest number of popular votes. It will once again be dependent on how successful the two main political parties will be in mobilizing their core.
And strange as this seems, even that may still not get the President to remain in the White House. It all hinges on the Electoral College.
Mario Salazar, the 21st Century Pacifist, is a bleeding heart liberal, agnostic, exercise fanatic, Redskin fan, technophile, civil engineer, combat infantry veteran, jewelry maker, amateur computer programmer, Environmental engineer, Colombian-born, free thinker, and, not surprisingly, pacifist. You can find his articles - ranging from politics to cooking a mean brisket - in 21st Century Pacifist at The Washington Times Communities. Follow Mario on Twitter @chibcharus #TWTC and Facebook at Mario Salazar.
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